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Pound Dominates against Australian Dollar on Hopes of Brexit Fast Track

Published: 31 Oct at 4 PM Tags: Pound Sterling, Dollar Exchange Rate, Australian Dollar Exchange Rate, Euro Crisis, UK, Economy,

Pound Bolstered by Hopes of Accelerated Brexit Process

There have been two factors enabling a Pound to Australian Dollar rise today, the first being a recent statement from Michel Barnier.

The EU’s Chief Brexit Negotiator, Mr Barnier has stated that the next round of talks with the UK could be scheduled in ‘[the next few] hours or days’.

While clearly not a concrete statement guaranteeing fresh talks in the near-term, this still suggests some kind of speeding up of the Brexit process.

Talks have remained stalled on three key issues recently, covering the Irish border, a possible ‘divorce settlement’ and what happens to EU citizens living in the UK.

The other Pound-boosting news has been more established – this is the assumption that the Bank of England (BoE) might finally raise UK interest rates on Friday.

The BoE cut rates to their lowest ever level, 0.25%, back in August 2016.

Previously, their last recorded rate hike was all the way back in July 2007, when they raised rates up to 5.75%.

If Thursday does bring the long-awaited rate hike then the Pound could rally, even though some economists think that now isn’t the right time.

Australian Dollar Tumbles on Suspected Chinese Slowdown

The Chinese economy has had a negative effect on the Australian Dollar today, which has fallen heavily against the Pound.

This setback has been the news that Chinese manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity has slowed in October, though not to the point of contraction.

According to NBS Analyst Zhao Qinghe, the slower pace of manufacturing growth might be caused by a national push to lessen pollution;

‘Relevant enterprises adjusted their output schedule to cut or suspend production, as some areas strengthened efforts to reduce pollution’.

Bad news for China generally means that the Australian Dollar is devalued, given how strong Australia’s trade links with China are.

Australian data has been similarly disappointing, showing a -6.1% reduction in new home sales.

The next major Australian data will come early on Thursday, when the September trade balance figure will be announced.

On the month, a surplus reduction from 0.99bn to 1200m is forecast.

While this would leave Australia with a sizable surplus, it would still be a reduction so could trigger an AUD wobble.
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