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Pound Fluctuations Likely As Employment Improves But BoE Fails To Unite

Published: 14 Aug at 10 AM Tags: Pound Sterling, Euro Exchange Rate, Dollar Exchange Rate, Currency Exchange, Euro Crisis, UK, Economy, Inflation,

Over the last four weeks the Pound has strengthened by 0.9 per cent as the currency has been boosted by increasingly positive UK data and a brightening economic outlook for Britain.

The British currency was able to extend gains against several of its rivals in the wake of yesterday’s domestic inflation and housing reports, and was little changed against the US Dollar as the European session opened.

Sterling slipped modestly against a broadly strengthening Euro prior to the publication of UK employment data and the Bank of England’s policy meeting minutes.
However, with UK jobless claims falling by twice as much as predicted, the economy adding 69,000 positions rather than the 34,000 expected, and the unemployment rate holding by 7.8 per cent, the Pound could enjoy a bullish relationship with several of its most traded peers in the hours ahead.

Average weekly earnings also climbed by 2.1 per cent rather than the 2.0 per cent predicted.

That being said, gains may be limited by the news that Bank of England Governor Mark Carney failed to win the support of all the members of the Monetary Policy Committee at the last BoE meeting.

The decision to connect interest rates to unemployment was approved by an 8-1 vote. Martin Weale was in favour of adopting a stricter approach to tackling above target inflation.

After Carney linked rate increases to the unemployment rate the figure has become even more significant.

As economist Alan Clarke observes: ‘The unemployment rate has all of a sudden become an A-list celebrity. We see unemployment steadily falling. There’s considerable uncertainty still about the timing of the first hike.’
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