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Euro to US Dollar Exchange Rate Struggles Near 2021 Worst despite Forecast-Beating Eurozone PMIs

Published: 1 Apr at 1 PM Tags: Euro Exchange Rate, Dollar Exchange Rate, Currency Exchange, Swiss Franc Exchange Rate, Euro Crisis, Exchange Rates, Economy, France,

Despite fresh signs of resilience in the Eurozone economic outlook, the Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate has been struggling to recover from this week’s lows as the US Dollar remains broadly appealing in comparison. Unless upcoming US data disappoints investors, the Euro may have a difficult time mounting a more solid recovery.

Since opening this week at the level of 1.1771, EUR/USD has been struggling to hold its ground. EUR/USD tumbled in the middle of the week and hit a low of 1.1704 - the worst level for the pair all year, since November 2020.

EUR/USD has been attempting to rebound slightly from those lows today. However, the US Dollar remains broadly appealing so EUR/USD has only been able to recover to around the level of 1.1741 as of the time of writing.

Demand for the Euro has been boosted a little by Eurozone ecostats in recent sessions.

The latest Eurozone data has continued to show signs of resilience in the Eurozone’s economy, indicating that the bloc is weathering the coronavirus pandemic a little better than expected.

Today’s Eurozone manufacturing PMI results from Markit notably beat projections in France. This boosted the overall Eurozone manufacturing PMI to an impressive 62.5.

However, despite this the Euro has been unable to sustain much of a recovery against the stronger US Dollar. The US Dollar has seen higher demand in comparison, as the Eurozone continues to struggle more than the US with the coronavirus pandemic.

France is set to see its third national lockdown, in news which has weighed heavily on the Eurozone’s recovery outlook and hopes, especially compared to the more optimistic outlook in the US.

The US Dollar has been more appealing due to weakness in its rival the Euro, as well as continued signs of recovery in the US economic outlook.

Recent US data has been strong, the US vaccination program is running smoothly, and US President Joe Biden has discussed his latest US infrastructure plans.

The US Dollar received a boost from Biden’s infrastructure speech last night. Biden said the government would aim to spend £2trillion on stimulating the US economy.

While the plans are likely to face opposition from the opposition Republican Party, the news made investors more optimistic about US economic recovery.

This size of the plan also made investors more hesitant to take risks for now, leading to higher safe haven demand and an even stronger US Dollar.

The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate may struggle to mount much of a recovery unless there is weakness in US data in the coming week. The US Dollar outlook remains strong overall.

Many major economies will be closed to observe public holidays tomorrow. However, major US Non-Farm Payroll data is still due to be published.

As the US NFP report is a key indicator of US economic health, any surprising figures could influence the US Dollar outlook.

A surprisingly weak US Non-Farm Payroll report could be the best chance the Euro has at mounting a big EUR/USD recovery.

Failing that, the Euro will await optimistic developments in the Eurozone coronavirus situation. Key services PMI data and Eurozone unemployment stats, as well as the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes, will be in focus for Euro to US Dollar exchange rate investors next week.