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Pound Sterling to Philippine Peso (GBP/PHP) Exchange Rate Forecast to Strengthen despite Missed UK Services Estimates

Published: 5 Aug at 12 PM Tags: Pound Sterling, Euro Exchange Rate, Currency Exchange, Euro Crisis, UK, Exchange Rates, Economy, Inflation,

The Pound Sterling to Philippine Peso (GBP/PHP) exchange rate edged higher during Wednesday’s European session. This is despite lower-than-expected British services output. The UK Markit Services PMI was forecast to edge lower from 58.5 to 58.0 in July, but the actual result fell to 57.4. Also weighing on demand for the Pound was the Composite PMI which came in at 56.6 in July; missing the market consensus of 56.9. The Pound was little affected by the less-than-ideal data results, however, given that services output is still robust. Most analysts don’t believe that these latest figures will have a significant impact on future Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decisions.

David Noble, Group Chief Executive Officer at the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply said; ‘Though dislodged from last month, the sector’s growth continued to operate on solid foundations and in an optimistic environment. Respondents reported a few surprises in the form of unexpected new business wins, which contributed to increased backlogs. Overall, activity has continued to rise for 31 months and though the minor easing in growth may raise questions around the continued strength of recovery, recent revised GDP figures for the UK economy confirm the sector’s solidity along with half of the survey’s respondents who were optimistic for the coming months.’

The Pound Sterling to Philippine Peso (GBP/PHP) exchange rate is currently trending in the region of 71.3958.

As an emerging market currency, the Philippine Peso has softened versus its currency rivals in response to speculation that the Federal Reserve will hike the cash rate in September. Additional losses can be linked to lower-than-expected inflation. July’s Core Inflation Rate came in at 1.9% on the year, just missing the market consensus of 1.95%. July’s standard Inflation rate came in at 0.8% on the year; bettering the median market forecast 0.68%. However, on the month July’s Inflation Rate came in at 0.1%; missing the market projection of 0.19%. Despite the lower-than-forecast inflation, most analysts do not forecast a rate cut from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

‘We see outside risks of easing in the reserve requirement ratio for banks, if liquidity conditions deteriorate due to capital outflows on the back of potential US rate hikes,’ notes Barclays. ‘We continue to think it is unlikely that BSP will join other central banks in easing monetary policy. We forecast the next policy move will be a hike, most likely in Q4 15, after the Fed has begun its expected tightening. Risks to our rate hike view are biased towards the move being pushed out,’ added Barclays.

The Pound Sterling to Philippine Peso (GBP/PHP) exchange rate was trending within the range of 71.0336 to 71.4272 during Wednesday’s European session.