Both the Pound and US Dollar weakened today, leaving the British Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate jittery in anticipation of tonight’s US Presidential Debate.
Following last week’s tumble from the level of 1.2918 to 1.2742, GBP/USD has been trending with an upside bias this week so far.
Though GBP/USD’s advances have slowed, the pair has been able to sustain most of yesterday’s gains. At the time of writing on Tuesday, GBP/USD trends near the level of 1.2842. This means it has recovered over half of last week’s losses.
Yesterday saw the Pound rebounding. It was largely due to speculation that UK-EU Brexit negotiations could finally see a breakthrough this week, during the final round of scheduled talks.
The Pound has been able to sustain most of yesterday’s gains, but coronavirus jitters weighed on the British currency today.
Fresh signs of the coronavirus pandemic hurting UK retail chains, as well as concerns that UK lockdown measures could intensify, both limited Sterling appeal.
On top of this, the Bank of England continues to leave markets anxious about the possibility of negative interest rates. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said today that the bank had not yet decided on whether or when it could use negative interest rates.
The ongoing discussion on negative rates is keeping markets prepared for the possibility that they may eventually be used.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar’s safe haven rally has slowed since markets opened this week.
The US Dollar has already seen a major recovery over the past week as investors look for safer investments. For now, investors are hesitant to keep buying the currency ahead of the first US Presidential Debate.
The first televised debate will be held during tonight’s American session. It will see US President Donald Trump debate Democratic Challenger Joe Biden.
Reaction to this debate is likely to drive Pound to US Dollar exchange rate movement in the coming sessions. In fact, surprises in the debate’s outcome could cause big movement across markets.
If US President Trump performs well in debates, it could lead to tighter polls. This would lead to fresh market uncertainty and safe haven demand, which would likely boost the US Dollar.
On the other hand, a strong performance for Biden could make investors more willing to take risks. This would make it easier for GBP/USD to rise.
Pound investors will be more focused on UK-EU Brexit negotiations, which will last through Friday. Any signs of agreement or breakthrough could lead to a surge in Pound demand.
Of course, any shifts in Britain’s coronavirus situation could also influence the Pound to US Dollar exchange rate.