Chinese Shutdown Added to ‘Aussie’ Woes Last Week in AUD-USD Pairing
The Australian Dollar declined considerably against the US Dollar last week, beginning on a high of 0.7150 and ending the Australasian trading session at a low of 0.6909. This poor performance has continued into this week, with the ‘Aussie’ opening at a loss of 0.6902. This remains a historically poor performance for the Australian Dollar in the pairing, as it is currently trending around the lowest value against the ‘Greenback’ in over 5 years. By contrast, the US Dollar is doing its best in the pairing in over 5 years, printing with an exchange rate of 1.4480 this morning.
The ‘Aussie’ was most heavily damaged in value last week by two pieces of information. The first was the news that the Australian interest rate would be remaining at 2%, something that was not entirely unexpected, but was still an indicator that the Australian economic recovery will likely meet Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Glenn Stevens’ estimation of being ‘slow and steady’. This was apparently confirmed by the release of Australia’s Q2 GDP data the next day, which showed a 0.5% slowdown to 2% for the annual figure. The quarterly result showed that growth had also slowed from 0.9% to 0.2%.
Meanwhile, US results showed a varied outcome; the Employment Rate for August dropped from 5.3% to below estimates, coming in at 5.1% instead of 5.2%. On the other hand, the Change in Non-Farm Payrolls result fell far short, showing only 140K, instead of 204K. Despite this ambiguity, speculators were clearly optimistic for the impact of the beneficial results on the Federal Reserve’s possible interest rate rise decision this month, and the ‘Buck’ appreciated accordingly.
Australian Unemployment and US Confidence to Decide AUD-USD Leader This Week
This week could see the Australian Dollar maintain its current advantage in the pairing if the Unemployment Rate and Employment Change figures for August show positive outcomes for Australia’s economic recovery; forecasts have been for a drop from 6.3% to 6.2% in the former field, while a 5K person increase is expected to be seen for the latter. With this in mind, the previous increase in employed persons was substantially greater, coming in at 38.5K.
The US Dollar’s biggest determining factor this week will come at the end when the University of Michigan Confidence survey for September is released. In a bit of positive news for the ‘Aussie’, the score is expected to drop from 91.9 to 91.2 points; anything greater than this will exacerbate the negative impact of such a detrimental announcement and may just push the Australian Dollar higher in the pairing.