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US Dollar to Russian Ruble (USD/RUB) Exchange Rate Forecast to Strengthen ahead of FOMC Minutes

Published: 20 May at 5 PM Tags: Euro Exchange Rate, Dollar Exchange Rate, Currency Exchange, Euro Crisis, Exchange Rates, Inflation,

As traders await minutes from the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the US Dollar is generally trending higher versus several of its currency competitors. The advance was somewhat stymied by MBA Mortgage Applications, however, which declined by -1.5% in the week ending May 15th, although the result was better than the previous week’s declination of -3.5%.

‘Mortgage rates increased last week, and Treasury rates increased to a recent high at mid week before falling at the end of the week. Overall purchase activity fell for the week, along with conventional refinance volume, but government refinance volume increased,’ said Mike Fratantoni, MBA's chief economist. ‘The level of purchase applications remained 11 percent higher than the same week last year, but the drop this week may indicate borrowers being wary of the recent run-up in mortgage rates.’
The US Dollar pared recent gains against some of its major peers, however, amid speculation that the FOMC minutes will be dovish. Given that the meeting took place amid a sustained period of disappointing US data publications, the speculation is justly warranted.

The US Dollar to Russian Ruble (USD/RUB) exchange rate is currently trending in the region of 49.9583.

Russian industrial output cooled the most since 2009, defying government predictions of a speedy economic turnaround as a recession sets in. Industrial Production was forecast to weaken by -1.2% in April, but the actual result showed an annual contraction of -4.5%.

‘A recession is gaining momentum this quarter, the situation is getting worse and, accordingly, it had to have an impact on industrial production,’ Vladimir Tikhomirov, chief economist at BCS Financial Group in Moscow, said by phone. ‘Inflation and the effect of the drop in consumer and investment demand, which were seen in previous months, finally manifested themselves.’

The Ruble declination was somewhat slowed thanks to rising oil prices. However, if the Dollar rallies oil prices are likely to slide which will soften demand for the Russian asset.

The US Dollar to Russian Ruble (USD/RUB) exchange rate was trending within the range of 49.4950 – 50.1489 during Wednesday’s European session.
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