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Published: 11 Sep at 8 AM Tags: Pound Sterling, Euro Exchange Rate, Dollar Exchange Rate, Australian Dollar Exchange Rate, New Zealand Dollar Exchange Rate, Currency Exchange, Forex, Euro Crisis, UK,

The upcoming Scottish referendum, now barely a week away continues to dominate the attention of the foreign exchange market. In trading yesterday, traders took profits which allowed the pound to find some stability after its recent sharp falls across the board.

The pound did best against the Australian and New Zealand dollars as traders started to factor in a narrowing of the interest rate differential between the currencies after the comments from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney who earlier this week hinted at the possibility of raising UK interest rates in the spring of 2015. Neither the Reserve Bank of Australia or the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have any such plans at this moment in time as they have repeatedly argued in recent times that an overtly strong currency is damaging their export industry.

The currency markets remain very volatile and will continue to move as an ever increasing number of polls come out in the run up to the poll on 18 September.

The repercussions of a vote for an independent Scotland are all of a sudden being taken in by a currency market that until very recently felt there was very little chance of a yes vote. This is increasing selling pressure on the pound which despite yesterday’s comparatively better performance is still trading at a 3 month low against the Euro and a 10 month low against the US Dollar.

Of interest, Michael Hewson at CMC Markets said yesterday that "We are already reading reports of capital flowing out of Scotland as uncertainty continues to rise, particularly after comments from that other boyfriend, the unreliable one, Bank of England governor Mark Carney, that a currency union between the rest of the UK and an independent Scotland would be “incompatible with sovereignty”.”

The US Dollar remains strong across the currency markets as it is being supported by recent tightening of policy at the Federal Reserve as well as an increase in demand for the safe haven qualities of the US Dollar amidst all the flashpoints around the world like in the Ukraine, Iraq, Syria, Gaza and in Libya.

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