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Generally Positive UK Data can?t Save Falling Sterling, GBP/CAD Slumps

Published: 6 Jun at 5 PM Tags: Pound Sterling, Euro Exchange Rate, Dollar Exchange Rate, Currency Exchange, Canadian Dollar Exchange Rate, Euro Crisis, UK, Exchange Rates, Economy,

Amidst a slew of positive market data flooding out of the UK, it seems EU referendum-related opinion polls still hold most of the influence over the Pound to Canadian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/CAD).
The Pound to Canadian Dollar exchange rate currently sits at 1.857, having depreciated by over 1% throughout the day.

Public Opinion Polls Too Much for Pound to Bear

Sterling has continued its swan dive this week due to an increasing atmosphere of uncertainty diffusing itself amongst the ‘Brexit’ debate. A poll released today mirrored that of two put out last week; which showed an increase in pro-‘Brexit’ sentiment. In fact the poll showed that the ‘Leave’ camp garnered a small 3 or 4 point lead ahead of ‘Remain’.

The resulting impact of the poll just goes to show the sheer influence public opinion has on the markets. Even with two weeks of mostly UK-positive market data showing a healthy increase in production sectors, the unknown nature of a UK exit from the European Union is making investors and analysts sweat.

What little data Canada has released lately has been fairly dire, with their GDP shown to be in month-on-month contraction and a decline in annual output of nearly 0.3%. The manufacturing PMI also saw a slight decrease. Regardless, the GBP/CAD currency pair has only depreciated further due to the Pound struggling to keep its head above water amid EU referendum fears even with CAD being hit further by a slip in global oil prices.

The Pound to Canadian Dollar exchange rate currently sits at 1.8573, having depreciated by over 1% throughout the day.

Pound Forecast: Foggy Outlook with Possible Boost for GBP with the Right Data

With only more uncertainty over a ‘Brexit’ on the horizon, the Pound could be in for some continued tough times if public sentiment stays towards leaving the EU. Market data for UK industrial, manufacturing and construction output is set to be released later in the week. If the reports trump forecasts by a fair margin, Sterling may be in for a much needed boost back to its former strength but nothing is concrete until after the EU referendum has been voted on and the cloud of uncertainty no longer fogs the horizon.

Canada is also set to release some fairly useful data later in the week. Canadian building permits are forecast to come out of contraction and reach a positive 2.3% increase. If expected unemployment data turns out to be good news as well, it could mean a welcome boost for Canada’s flagging economy. Last week, OPEC announced it would not be capping crude oil production, sinking the price of oil and lowering the Canadian economy’s prospects somewhat. Canada has seen some tough times as of late, with the huge Alberta wild fires having their own impact on the country, so hopefully an upswing is just around the corner.
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