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Pound Sterling to Turkish Lira (GBP/TRY) Exchange Rate Forecast to Decline after Turkish Unemployment Drops

Published: 15 May at 12 PM Tags: Pound Sterling, Euro Exchange Rate, Currency Exchange, Euro Crisis, UK, Exchange Rates,

The Pound Sterling to Turkish Lira (GBP/TRY) exchange rate softened by around -0.55% on Friday morning.

After British construction data printed positively, the Pound strengthened versus the majority of its most traded currency rivals. The advance was aided by the Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney who stated that the fallout from a Greek exit would have minimal impact on the UK.

The Turkish Lira, meanwhile, advanced versus nearly all of its most traded currency peers on Friday. The advance can be linked to a drop in unemployment. Aiding the uptrend is the likelihood that the AK party will retain a single-government in the June election.

The Pound Sterling to Turkish Lira (GBP/TRY) exchange rate is currently trending in the region of 4.0665.

The British asset strengthened versus the majority of its currency competitors after domestic data printed positively. March’s Construction Output advanced by 1.6% in March on a seasonally-adjusted basis; eclipsing the median market forecast output increase of 1.1%/ On the month, Construction Output advanced by 3.9% in March.

The Office for National Statistics said; ‘The preliminary estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) published on 28 April 2015 contained a forecast for construction output of a fall of 1.6%. This estimate has been revised within this [Construction Output] release based upon updated survey responses and output is now estimated to have decreased by 1.1%. This upward revision to construction output of 0.5% will have no impact on GDP to 1 decimal place.’

The Pound Sterling to Turkish Lira (GBP/TRY) exchange rate dropped to a low today of 4.0611.

After election jitters eased somewhat on the increasing likelihood that the AK Party will retain office in June, the Lira strengthened versus many of its major peers. Additional appreciation came on Friday in response to a positive result from unemployment data. February’s Unemployment Rate was forecast to rise from 11.3% to 11.5%, but the actual result showed a positive declination to 11.2%.

‘The unemployment rate is much higher than last year. It was 10.2 percent. Now it is 11.2 percent. Given the weakness in economic activity in the first quarter of the year, this should be seen as normal,’ Ozlem Derici, chief economist of DenizInvest in Istanbul said. ‘But even if we see a recovery in the second half of the year, even with the impact of a higher growth on employment, it is hard to see a significant decline in the unemployment rate soon,’ she added.

With an absence of further economic data to curb the trend, the Pound Sterling to Turkish Lira exchange rate is likely to hold losses for the remainder of Friday’s European session.
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