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Currency Exchange Update: The Euro Back Under Pressure

Published: 11 Dec at 12 PM Tags: Euro Exchange Rate, Forex, Euro Crisis, UK, Economy,

The euro is coming under renewed pressure at the start of this trading week after the announcement by Italy’s technocrat Prime Minister Mario Monti that he intends to resign from his post after the Italian parliament passes his budget bill in a debate scheduled for 18 December. Monti explained his decision based on constant criticism from Silvio Berlusconi’s party, the Il Popolo della Libertà (PDL). Berlusconi founded the PDL and has also announced that he will run for re-election, a move that has seen Italian bond yields soar and the Italian stock market fall.

Berlusconi has consistently criticised Monti, accusing him of holding a “too-German bias” in his reform programme.

Meanwhile, credit ratings agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) suggest in their latest missive that there is a one in three chance that Greece will leave the euro zone.

In the UK, the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) reported that UK house prices edged lower in November following several months of steady improvement. Their latest report states their house price gauge moved from a figure of – 7 in October to – 9 in November. Readings above the unchanged zero point mark indicate successively quicker rates of increase and decline.

The RICS report also states that transaction activity has also slowed, with the newly agreed sales balance declining from a figure of 19 to 6. Similarly, new buyer enquiries fell from 17 to 11 while new seller instructions saw a seven-point fall to 4.

Analysts at Barclays Research indicated that “Notwithstanding November’s slightly weaker survey (…) we forecast a gradual revival in the housing market outlook next year. House prices have declined by about 10% in real terms since the start of 2010, and we think that this downward trend is likely to come to an end next year, particularly in light of continued monetary policy forbearance and tight housing supply. We also expect the Bank of England’s Funding for Lending scheme to provide a boost to the housing market during 2013, albeit a modest one, through improved mortgage availability.”

Sir Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England criticised world leaders yesterday, stating that in his opinion they had not working hard enough to rebalance the global economy since the financial crisis of 2008. The imbalance between countries such as the UK and the US which relied on consumer spending to fuel growth before 2008, and those including Germany and China that relied on exports, is seen by many economists as a key cause of the financial crisis. King told a New York conference that since agreeing a global stimulus plan in London in 2009 in the wake of the crisis, G20 leaders "have gone backward since then and there's been no agreement on rebalancing the world economy,".
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