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Pound US Dollar Exchange Rate Trends Tightly as Potential GBP Inflationary Crash Approaches

Published: 13 Dec at 5 PM Tags: Pound Sterling, Dollar Exchange Rate, Currency Exchange, Forex, Euro Crisis, UK, Exchange Rates, Inflation,

Pound Sterling Demand Drops Off after Day of Inflation-Linked Profit-Taking

The Pound US Dollar exchange rate has gradually degraded over the course of trading today, with a previously strong footing for the Pound eroding to the point of both currencies being flat against each other.

Earlier optimism among GBP investors came from the fact that annual inflation had risen above expectations; this triggered a rally for the Pound against all of its regular currency rivals.

The gradual decline in interest for the Pound, however, coincided with a growing sense of unease about the UK’s economic future, with particular near-term focus being placed on Wednesday morning’s average earnings stats for October.

While only minor declines are expected for UK wage growth in October, the combination of falling wages and rising inflation points to a highly concerning situation developing later on, where low-income households are hit hard by rising prices on everyday items.

Also due on Wednesday will be the UK’s unemployment rate for October, which is pessimistically predicted to rise from 4.8% to 4.9%. One slight positive might be November’s claimant count change, which has a downwards shift from 9.8k to 1.5k forecast.

US Dollar Pound Exchange Rate Gains Expected if Fed Raises US Interest Rate

The US Dollar has been close against the Pound during trading today, while elsewhere, losses have been the overall pattern for US Dollar movement.

The latest US data of note has been mixed, with the NFIB business optimism index for November rising but export prices falling during the same month.

Outside of this limited domestic data, US Dollar investors have been unsettled overall by President-Elect Donald Trump’s social media activities causing alarming marketplace crashes.

While Boeing shares were hit heavily because of Trump criticism in early December, Lockheed Martin has been the latest victim of a social media sting, having lost billions in stock market value because of a pricing concern voiced by the President-Elect.

This points to continued US market instability for the next four years at least, which cannot be an appealing prospect for US businesses and companies that now have to avoid getting on Trump’s bad side.

While the US Dollar has been weakened by this now-established aspect of its economic makeup, the USD stands to gain considerably in the near-term, given the Wednesday evening is expected to see a Federal Reserve interest rate hike.

Such an outcome would likely boost USD demand, though the fact that a hike has been heavily priced in means that any gains against the Pound may prove to be temporary at best.
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