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The pound is on the rise again

Published: 28 Jan at 10 AM Tags: Pound Sterling, Euro Exchange Rate, Forex, Euro Crisis, UK, Economy,

Ahead of the publication of the latest GDP data for the UK economy later this morning, the pound made steady if unspectacular progress at the start of the trading week.

The British Bankers’ Association (BBA) reported that the level of UK mortgages rose less than expected in December with 46,521 loans for house purchase worth a total of £7.7 billion made in December 2013 compared to the forecast for 47,300 loans. Although shy of expectations, the December data is the highest monthly total since September 2007 and marks a 42% increase against the December 2012 data.

BBA statistics director David Dooks said "These figures show that mortgage lending grew strongly towards the end of last year. This provides further evidence of a more active housing market, helped by growing consumer confidence and Government support schemes such as Help to Buy."

The GDP data release is critical this week. Any disappointment in the figure would raise questions about the strength of the UK economic recovery whilst a better than expected figure would only strengthen the pound on the back of an increase in speculation about an earlier than expected UK rate rise.

In the euro zone, European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi signalled that the ECB may move towards further stimulus measures in an effort to ward off the threat of deflation in the region. Draghi said the ECB may be prepared to buy packages of bank loans to households and companies, a departure from the normal Quantitative Easing program secured on the back of sovereign debt purchases.

In the US, against a background of mixed economic data, the US Federal Reserve meet today to discuss their latest policy moves which will be announced on Wednesday with the majority of analysts expecting the Fed to maintain interest rates at their historic low and continue the process of reducing its asset purchases, this time by another $10 billion to reduce the level to $65 billion a month.

Yesterday, the Commerce Department said new home sales fell by 7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 414,000 units, well short of the 457,000 unit sales expected by the majority of analysts.
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