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Euro to South African Rand (EUR/ZAR) Forecast to Dive on Dovish US Policy Outlook

Published: 9 Jul at 5 PM Tags: Euro Exchange Rate, Currency Exchange, Euro Crisis, Rand Exchange Rate, Exchange Rates,

The Euro to South African rand (EUR/ZAR) exchange rate dived by around -0.71% on Thursday afternoon.

The shared currency softened versus many of its peers during Thursday’s European session as a result of fears that the recent rally was unjustified, especially considering the many difficulties facing Europe at this time. Greece has been given until midnight tonight to submit a fresh reform proposal. The reforms are likely to be similar to previous iterations, although Athens is likely to push for debt restructuring after the ‘no’ vote victory for those opposed to austerity. However, whilst many Europe officials admit that Greece’s debt is not sustainable; European law rules out the possibility of Greek debt relief no matter how much Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras campaigns.

Although the International Monetary Fund (IMF) conceded that Greece requires a debt hair cut to foster sustainable growth, they are seemingly not prepared to offer it themselves. It is fair to say that the IMF owns a much smaller portion of Greek debt than say that of Germany. There may be other tools in Europe’s arsenal however. They could reduce the interest rate on debt considerably and give the Hellenic nation longer to repay.

The Euro to South African Rand (EUR/ZAR) exchange rate is currently trending in the region of 13.8131.

Despite the fact that market sentiment is damp amid geopolitics in Greece and troubles with China’s stock market, the emerging-market South African Rand advanced versus many of its closest rivals. The appreciation is the result of dovish minutes from the Federal Reserve’s most recent policy meeting. The minutes were particularly vague with regards to the timing of a rate hike, solidifying speculation that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will delay a rate hike for a considerable time to come. This is good news for emerging market currencies and may reduce global economic disparity.

The Rand’s appreciation continues irrespectively of poor domestic data on Thursday. Mining Production in May failed to meet with expectations on both a monthly and on an annual basis. In addition Manufacturing production remained in contraction territory in May despite expectations of a 0.53% growth on the year.

The Euro to South African Rand (EUR/ZAR) exchange rate was trending within the range of 13.7236 to 13.9296 during Thursday’s European session.
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